Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

Authors

• Kären C. Nelson, University of Maryland
• Margaret A. Palmer, University of Maryland
• James E. Pizzuto, University of Delaware
• Glenn A. Moglen, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
• Paul L. Angermeier, Virginia Tech
• Robert H. Hilderbrand, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
• Michael Dettinger, US Geological Survey
• Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

2009

Comments

Published in Journal of Applied Ecology 2009, 46, 154–163.

Abstract

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades.