Estimating Relative Sea-Level Rise and Submergence Potential at a Coastal Wetland

Authors

Donald R. Cahoon, U.S. Geological SurveyFollow

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

2015

Citation

Estuaries and Coasts (2015) 38:1077–1084 DOI 10.1007/s12237-014-9872-8.

Comments

Copyright Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation (outside the USA) 2014. Used by permission.

Abstract

A tide gauge records a combined signal of the vertical change (positive or negative) in the level of both the sea and the land to which the gauge is affixed; or relative sealevel change, which is typically referred to as relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Complicating this situation, coastal wetlands exhibit dynamic surface elevation change (both positive and negative), as revealed by surface elevation table (SET) measurements, that is not recorded at tide gauges. Because the usefulness of RSLR is in the ability to tie the change in sea level to the local topography, it is important that RSLR be calculated at a wetland that reflects these local dynamic surface elevation changes in order to better estimate wetland submergence potential. A rationale is described for calculating wetland RSLR (RSLR_wet) by subtracting the SET wetland elevation change from the tide gauge RSLR. The calculation is possible because the SET and tide gauge independently measure vertical land motion in different portions of the substrate. For 89 wetlands where RSLR_wet was evaluated, wetland elevation change differed significantly from zero for 80 % of them, indicating that RSLR_wet at these wetlands differed from the local tide gauge RSLR. When compared to tide gauge RSLR, about 39 % of wetlands experienced an elevation rate surplus and 58 % an elevation rate deficit (i.e., sea level becoming lower and higher, respectively, relative to the wetland surface). These proportions were consistent across saltmarsh, mangrove, and freshwater wetland types. Comparison of wetland elevation change and RSLR is confounded by high levels of temporal and spatial variability, and would be improved by co-locating tide gauge and SET stations near each other and obtaining longterm records for both.